Danish Ship Finance has released its latest semi-annual report on shipping markets with plenty of projections for shipping to digest.
Danish Ship Finance analysts expect maritime trade volume growth to slow in 2022 to 3% from 4% this year, with no support expected from longer travel distances. Container, dry bulk, product and gas tanker volumes are expected to grow more slowly, while crude and chemical tanker volumes are expected to grow higher in 2022.
The detailed report, covering many segments, places a strong emphasis on decarbonization and the expected timeline to replace the current fossil fuel-hungry fleet.
Some of the most important ship segments, including oil tankers, gas carriers and offshore supply vessels, face difficult demand prospects that could reduce the need for significant fleet renewal after 2030, Danish Ship suggested. Finance (see graph below).
As is customary with Danish Ship Finance results, shipyards are focusing heavily on branching off the industry, with fewer names taking up the majority of orders, leaving other yards on the brink.
Ten yard groups currently account for almost 70% of all orders, while 30% is split among the remaining 185 yard groups, according to data from Danish Ship Finance.
Not only are orders placed at fewer yards, but they are increasingly dominated by larger ships. The average vessel capacity in the order book has increased by 15% over the past 10 years, according to data from Copenhagen.
Danish Ship Finance has warned that 204 so-called second-tier yards will start to see their order books dwindling from next year and that they will be completely out of orders by 2024 if no new orders are made. past. As such, 76 yards – amounting to 4.3 million tbc – will run out of orders from next year. From 2023, 164 yards – or about 13 million gt – will run out of orders. It also underscores the fact that the recent wave of orders is mostly concentrated among the larger top tier yards.
The 100,000 ships in the global fleet are estimated to have a combined capacity of around 900 mtc. The active global yard capacity is estimated to be approximately 53 million gross metric tonnes. If all ships were to be renewed in order, the current capacity of the shipyard suggests this could be done within 15 to 20 years, the report said, a subject that was also discussed by Dr Martin Stopford, non-executive chairman of Clarkson Research Services, at last week’s Asia Logistics, Navy and Aviation Conference in Hong Kong.
It won’t be until the end of the decade before owners can have confidence in using hydrogen and ammonia technology in ocean-going trades. The problem with this mismatch, Stopford said, is that there is will have a huge pent-up demand for these new types of ships as replacement tonnage by 2030 and yet shipyards can only deliver a few percent of the existing fleet per year.
“The dynamics of supply and demand will be a huge problem and there has to be some kind of modernization,” said Stopford, adding: “When we build a ship today, we have to build it to be modernized. “